Double Chance Football Betting System
Posted : admin On 3/29/2022- Sports Betting Systems
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For some, football betting is a calculated gamble: having studied the form guide and the history books, these people are willing to bet sums of money on a favourable outcome. The reward, when it comes, is a plus-sized profit.
For others, football betting is an investment: an opportunity to make an additional income through smart, logical punts, with the ultimate aim of accumulating small profits each and every time they put pen to paper (or finger to screen these days!).
Double Chance Football Betting Strategy / System The low risk/high reward way to bet 1st March 2019 / Julian For some, football betting is a calculated gamble: having studied the form guide and the history books, these people are willing to bet sums of money on a favourable outcome. It is easy enough to calculate what the percentage of a winning chance a bookmaker has given to a team. If you have a team at 4/1 to win a game, calculate 4 divided by 1, then plus one and divide by one hundred. In this instance that leaves a 20% chance that the team is. Double Chance prediction has a 66% winning rate with all these predictions for today are offered for free. Also double chance tips can be payed as a Single bet or Accumulator bet for better odds. Offering double chance tips to bet for today, Feedinco team monitors all double chance prediction relentlessly. What is double chance betting? Simply put, in this betting strategy you can bet on two outcomes of a game. Needless to say, the only precondition is that the sport you are betting on has three different possible outcomes (e.g. Win, Draw, Loss). Here we explain all you need to know about Home win or Draw (1X), Any team wins i.e No draw (12), Away Win or Draw (2X) in Soccer betting, we give examples o.
For the former mindset, a whole host of markets are available to satisfy the need for ‘risk and reward’ betting. For the latter, the only sensible choice is the Double Chance market.
What is Double Chance Betting?
The Double Chance option is simply that: bookmakers offering you two chances of winning. If we use this in a football context, there are three options at your disposal:
- Home win
- Draw
- Away win
Ordinarily, we would bet on one of these outcomes. Let’s take a look at an example: we fancy the home team, Manchester United, to beat Tottenham Hotspur. But we know that Spurs are a good side on their day, and more than capable of coming away from Old Trafford with a point. And so we have two options:
- Bet on Man Utd to win at 4/7 and cross all of our fingers and toes.
- Back Man Utd in the Double Chance market at 1/8 and relax a little.
You see, in the Double Chance market, we would back Man Utd to win OR draw – and instantly we have given ourselves a 66.6% chance of our bet being successful, hence why Double Chance betting is considered a low(er) risk investment.
We can back one of three combinations with Double Chance: home win/draw; away win/draw; home win/away win. And remember, either one of the outcomes pays the same amount, so you really are spreading your risk.
You might be looking at the Man Utd vs Spurs example above and thinking ‘those odds are a bit short!’ Well, that is the only downside with Double Chance betting: the prices are rather stingy. But that’s no surprise; bookmakers aren’t daft after all, and can see that this method of betting greatly increases the punter’s chances of winning.
But, for context, remember this: a six-fold accumulator, with each leg at 1/8, will enable you to double your money. And you can’t say fairer than that.
Double Chance Football Betting Strategies / Systems
There are two distinct types of Double Chance betting strategy, and we will go into each one in more detail further into the piece. But for now, let’s identify those two strategies and see on which side of the fence you will fall:
- Strategy #1 – Low Risk Profiteering
- Strategy #2 – Underdog Hunting
Which strategy you prefer will be dictated by your own betting philosophy, and also your understanding of world football. If you can spot an underdog who you think will sneak a draw – at least – against their more heralded opponent, then Strategy #2 is for you.
However, if you want to start building a kitty, or want to start putting more money into your bank account at the end of the month, then Strategy #1 is for you.
Strategy #1: Low Risk Profiteering
As you’re hopefully now aware, Double Chance betting – when done well – is a low risk way of making small profits on a regular basis. You only need to take a cursory glance at league tables, form guides and head-to-head records to know where to leverage profit, and betting in this manner enables you to fund more extravagant punts elsewhere. Or use it to pay some of your bills – the choice is yours!
Let’s take a look at another example. Let’s imagine that Chelsea are hosting Swansea. We know that Jose Mourinho’s men are the defending league champions and have an unbelievable record on their own patch at Stamford Bridge. We know that Swansea are a good team and have a chance of sneaking a point off the Blues, but you can’t see them winning the match.
The ‘Chelsea/Draw’ Double Chance price is 1/20. Again, very stingy odds. But we only need to hunt down five legs of 1/20 for our accumulator from the world of football to turn a profit. A £10 acca would return £12.76 in this instance.
Sure, we’re not going to be buying a yacht in Monte Carlo any time soon. But look at the bigger picture: that’s a 27.6% profit for a 33.3% risk – those aren’t bad numbers at all. If we extend that to a whole season’s worth of betting then we can see how profit can be made.
The only downside of betting at these odds is that if we place 5x five-fold accumulators and one lets us down, then we are looking at a miniscule profit margin. So doing your homework and picking the right teams is vital. Finding six matches where the Double Chance odds are 1/8 or lower should be your goal.
Strategy #2: The Underdog Hunter
Have you ever watched the results come in on a Saturday evening and thought to yourself ‘I thought so-and-so would get a result there’, but never acted upon it? Then the second Double Chance strategy could be ideal for you.
Sniffing out an underdog who we fancy to steal at least a point is a great way to make money and a happy knack to have. Even with the short prices of Double Chance betting, we can still turn over decent money. Let’s take a look at an example of a Double Chance double from the opening day of the season:
Bet 1: Newcastle Win/Draw against Southampton (1/2)
Newcastle were priced at 9/5 to win this game, and playing at home that is quite a long price. They have a new manager, which usually brings optimism, and a bunch of good new signings.
Southampton, meanwhile, have lost a few key players, their main stars ended last season badly, and this was their second game in three days – a tough turnaround at this early stage of the season.
Bet 2: Crystal Palace Win/Draw against Norwich (1/2)
Crystal Palace ended last season in tremendous form, and have added some shrewd new signings to build a squad that looks capable of going places during this campaign.
Norwich are newly promoted, and without significant investment in their playing squad would be expected to struggle with the step up in class.
This Double Chance double above paid out £11.26 for a stake of £5. All of a sudden, the Underdog Hunter strategy looks like a nice little earner!
The most popular betting market in soccer is the 1X2, but does it offer bettors the most value? Double Chance betting can be a better alternative to both the traditional three-way market and Draw No Bet option because it covers multiple outcomes. How can bettors use the 1X2 odds to calculate stakes for Double Chance betting? Read on to find out.
What is Double Chance betting?
In essence, Double Chance betting gives you the option to bet on two outcomes in a single game and eliminate the third option - this means you can bet on either the home team and the draw or the away team and the draw. Draw No Bet, by contrast, offers lower odds on your selection to win and simply refunds the amount staked on a bet if the match ends in a draw.
Bookmakers will often offer a win or draw market, but can you get better value by working out your own Double Chance odds from the 1X2 odds?
At Pinnacle, a +0.5 Handicap works perfectly for Double Chance betting. However, we do not offer a 0 and 0.5 Handicaps on every game and therefore, being able to calculate your own Double Chance betting odds will be beneficial.
How to calculate Double Chance odds
We have established that by betting on Double Chance, there will be two out of the three possible outcomes that will ensure your bet is successful. Consequently, odds are significantly lower than the straight 1X2 odds.
We can use a hypothetical example to help explain Double Chance betting more clearly.
Understanding how to calculate Double Chance stakes by using odds from the 1X2 market allows bettors to find higher value betting odds.
For example, you want to bet on Manchester City to beat Southampton at odds of 1.971. However, you believe Southampton may upset the odds and secure a draw but a 0.5 Handicap isn't available - something that would enable you to cover that option. Other bookmakers offer Southampton to win or draw at 1.25, is that better value than at Pinnacle?
Odds for the draw are at 3.880, and you are willing to risk €100 for this bet. Bettors who want a Double Chance bet should bet part of their €100 stake on Manchester City to win, and the remaining stake on the draw. Obviously, only one of these bets will win but we want the same profit in either case.
For the purpose of this example we will label the stake on Manchester City as S. The stake on the draw is therefore (€100-S). If Manchester City win, the bettor will win 0.971 x S from that bet (The 0.971 comes from 1.971-1); the profit is calculated as S x (Decimal Odds – 1), and the bettor loses the remaining stake that was placed on the draw (100-S).
If the game ended in a draw, the calculation for the draw would see the bettor win 2.88 x (100-S) from the bet on the draw.
Profit if Manchester City and Southampton draw:
2.88 x (100-S) – S
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As stated earlier bettors will want both profits equal. Using the above example, the equation to get equal profits would be as follows:
This simple equation works out the value of S as 66.31. This means we should stake €66.31 on the Manchester City win and €33.69 (which works out as 100-66.31) on the draw.
So, if Manchester City win the bettor will earn (1.971-1) x 66.31 = €64.39, and lose €33.69 on the draw, with a net profit of €30.70.
If the game is a draw the bettor would win (3.88-1) x 33.69 = €97.03, and lose €66.31 on the Manchester City win bet, with an overall net profit of €30.72.
We can now make a simple comparison to another bookmaker to see if a Double Chance bet would have left the bettor with more or less profit.
Manchester City win | Draw | |
---|---|---|
Stake | €66.31 | €33.69 |
Odds | 1.971 | 3.88 |
Profit | €30.70 | €30.72 |
Other bookmaker | Manchester City to win or draw |
---|---|
Stake | €100 |
Odds | 1.25 |
Profit | €25 |
This shows that the bettor would have come away with €5.70 less profit if they had used the Double Chance option provided by another bookmaker (approximately 16% of the profit they would have got by covering both a Manchester win and draw individually at Pinnacle).
How to calculate Double Chance stakes
From the above example, you can derive a general rule for calculating stakes. If we label the total amount of money bettors want to risk with TOTAL, odds for a home win with HOME and odds for a draw with DRAW, then:
Stake on draw = TOTAL – Stake on home win
If you want to just compare odds, to get effective decimal odds you need to divide the return with the stake.
For the example above, the €100 staked would return €130.70 in the case of Manchester City win (profit is €30.70), therefore the decimal odds are 130.7/100 = 1.307.
The formula to calculate effective odds can also be worked out from the equations above.
Return from home win bet is:
Double Chance Football Betting Systems
HOME x DRAW x TOTAL / (DRAW + HOME)
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Therefore after dividing your return with TOTAL, the odds appear to be:
The equations for the other two Double Chance markets (draw or away win and home win or away win), where AWAY stands for away win odds, are as follows:
Draw or away win:
Stake on away win:
DRAW x TOTAL / (DRAW + AWAY)
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Effective odds:
DRAW x AWAY / (DRAW + AWAY)
Home win or away Win:
Stake on away win:
Soccer Betting Double Chance
TOTAL - Stake on Home win
Double Chance Football Betting System Predictions
Now that you know the benefits of Double Chance betting, the Draw No Bet or win or draw option with another bookmaker probably doesn't seem so appealing. Understanding how to calculate Double Chance stakes by using odds from the 1X2 market will allow bettors to work out where the best value lies and gives you a better alternative.